A practical decade-ahead outlook: what “the robotics market” includes, how big it could get, and which segments drive the curve.
“Robotics market size” is a deceptively messy metric. Depending on the source, it may include only robot hardware, hardware + software + services, or broader automation and AI-enabled value. That’s why headline figures often look inconsistent—even when they’re pointing in the same direction.
The cleanest way to think about 2026–2035 is to treat robotics as a set of large sub-markets with different growth rates: industrial robots, professional service robots (logistics, inspection, healthcare, etc.), consumer service robots, and an emerging category: humanoid robots.
Across credible forecasts, the common conclusion is clear: robotics is moving from a ~$50B-class market in the mid-2020s to a ~$200B+ market by the mid-2030s, with wide uncertainty depending on how fast service robots and humanoids scale.
What counts as “the robotics market”?
For this outlook, we focus on robotics revenues—primarily hardware and closely attached software/services—rather than the broader “automation value created” in the economy.
- Industrial robots: fixed-base robots in factories (automotive, electronics, metal, plastics, etc.).
- Professional service robots: robots used by companies (warehousing, last-mile delivery, hospitals, agriculture, inspection).
- Consumer service robots: domestic tasks (vacuuming, lawn mowing, etc.).
- Humanoid robots: general-purpose bipedal platforms (still early-stage, but accelerating).
Where the market is starting from (2024–2026 baseline)
Two data points help anchor reality:
- Installed base is rising: IFR reports 4.664 million industrial robots in operation worldwide in 2024—up 9% year over year.
- Total robotics revenue is already large: ABI Research estimates the global robotics market is nearly $50B in 2025.
Translation: robotics isn’t “a future market.” It’s a real market expanding into new domains.
2026–2030: the “service robots take over” phase
A major structural shift is underway: growth is increasingly driven by professional service robots (especially logistics and mobile robots), not only industrial arms.
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) projected that the global robotics market could reach $160B–$260B by 2030, with professional service robots potentially becoming the largest portion of the market.
ABI Research offers a more conservative trajectory: nearly $50B in 2025 growing to $111B by 2030 (14% CAGR), with mobile robots generating roughly 50%–60% of total revenue through the decade.
The difference between BCG’s upper range and ABI’s estimate often comes down to scope (what’s included) and assumptions about how quickly service robotics scales into mainstream enterprise deployments.
2030–2035: the “scale and autonomy” phase
By the early 2030s, robotics growth becomes less about selling “robots as machines” and more about:
- Fleet deployment: robots operating as managed assets (RaaS models, service contracts, recurring revenue).
- Autonomy gains: better perception and planning enabling new tasks with less integration effort.
- Cost compression: improved supply chains and volume manufacturing (especially in Asia).
- Workforce demographics: labor shortages pushing adoption in logistics, manufacturing, and care.
Humanoids could become meaningful in this window, but they are still the least certain variable. Goldman Sachs Research estimated a $38B total addressable market for humanoid robots by 2035, implying humanoids could become a significant (though not dominant) slice of total robotics revenue by then.
Market size scenarios (2026–2035)
Because forecasts differ by scope and assumptions, the most honest approach is to present scenario bands. Below is a scenario-based view that aligns with the ranges from BCG (2030) and ABI Research (2030), then extends to 2035 using plausible growth ranges for a scaling industry.
| Scenario | 2030 Market Size | Assumed 2030–2035 CAGR | 2035 Market Size (Illustrative) | What must be true |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | ~$110B (ABI-style) | ~10%–14% | ~$175B–$215B | Industrial grows steadily; service robotics expands but integration remains costly; humanoids stay niche. |
| Base | ~$160B (BCG low end) | ~10%–14% | ~$260B–$310B | Mobile/service robots scale broadly; autonomy reduces deployment friction; recurring revenue models mature. |
| Aggressive | ~$260B (BCG high end) | ~10%–14% | ~$420B–$500B | Service robots explode in logistics/healthcare; strong cost-down; humanoids begin real commercial traction. |
Important: these are illustrative bands, not a single “true” number. The real market size will depend on definition (hardware-only vs robotics + attached software/services), geopolitics, supply chain capacity, and the pace of autonomy.
Segment outlook: who drives the next decade?
1) Industrial robots: steady growth, massive installed base
Industrial robotics is already scaled and will keep expanding, but growth rates are typically lower than service robotics. IFR data shows the installed base continues to climb, supporting ongoing replacement cycles, upgrades, and new installations.
2) Professional service robots: the primary growth engine
Service robots are where growth can compound quickly—especially logistics automation (AMRs, AS/RS), inspection, and healthcare support systems. This is central to both BCG’s view of the market and ABI’s emphasis on mobile robots.
3) Consumer robots: big unit volumes, thinner margins
IFR reports close to 20 million consumer service robots sold in 2024 (with solid growth), dominated by domestic tasks like floor cleaning and lawn mowing. This segment is volume-driven but often has lower ASPs.
4) Humanoids: high uncertainty, high narrative power
Humanoids attract outsized attention because they promise general-purpose labor substitution in a human-designed world. Goldman Sachs Research’s $38B TAM by 2035 suggests humanoids could become meaningful by the mid-2030s, but this depends on reliability, safety, and real task economics—not demos.
Key drivers that can shift the curve (up or down)
- Deployment friction: if integration costs fall, adoption accelerates.
- Robot-as-a-service: recurring revenue increases lifetime value and unlocks more buyers.
- AI progress: better perception + planning expands feasible tasks per robot.
- Supply chain scale: cheaper actuators, sensors, batteries, and improved yields reduce unit costs.
- Regulation & safety standards: can either enable scaling (clear standards) or slow deployment (uncertainty/liability).
- Macro cycles: capex slowdowns can temporarily suppress industrial purchases.
McKinsey’s research on AI/agents/robots focuses more on economic value created than revenue, but it reinforces the macro thesis: automation technologies (including robots) can drive very large productivity impacts by 2030, and that tends to pull adoption forward when labor constraints intensify.
Bottom line
By 2035, global robotics revenue is plausibly in the $200B–$500B range depending on scope and adoption speed, with a strong consensus that professional service robots (especially mobile/logistics robots) are the dominant growth engine. Humanoids could add a meaningful layer by the mid-2030s—but remain the most uncertain variable.
The most useful investor/operator view is not a single market-size number, but a set of indicators: deployment volume, recurring revenue models, autonomy reliability, and cost curves for actuators and mobile platforms.
Sources
- BCG (2021): Robotics Outlook 2030 — expects global robotics market to reach $160B–$260B by 2030. Source
- ABI Research (Jul 31, 2025): The Global Robotics Market Outlook — nearly $50B in 2025, reaching $111B by 2030. Source
- International Federation of Robotics (Sep 2025): World Robotics 2025 — industrial robots operational stock 4.664 million units in 2024. Source
- IFR (Oct 7, 2025): Service Robots see global growth boom — consumer service robots close to 20 million units sold in 2024. Source
- Goldman Sachs Research (Feb 27, 2024): humanoid robots TAM projected at $38B by 2035. Source
- McKinsey Global Institute (Nov 25, 2025): perspective on economic value from AI-powered agents/robots (context for adoption drivers). Source
About RoboChronicle
RoboChronicle tracks the global robotics revolution—humanoids, industrial automation, and the companies shaping embodied intelligence.
