What does this simulator actually estimate?

It estimates a directional robotics revenue pool and unit demand over time based on CAGR, adoption (S-curve), market penetration, and average selling price assumptions.

Is this an official forecast?

No. This is a scenario tool. Outputs depend entirely on your inputs and are intended for exploration, not as authoritative predictions.

What is the adoption S-curve?

A common way to model technology adoption: slow early growth, rapid mid-phase expansion, then saturation as penetration approaches a ceiling.

What should I use for ASP?

Use an average selling price that matches your scope: industrial robots, AMRs, humanoids, or a blended mix. ASP strongly affects unit counts.

Can I share a scenario?

Yes. The simulator can generate a shareable link that stores your inputs in the URL.

ROBOCHRONICLE TOOLS 2026 EDITION MARKET MODEL

Robotics Market Growth Simulator

Scenario model for robotics market expansion. Combine CAGR + adoption (S-curve) + penetration + ASP. Outputs revenue pool and unit demand projections by year.

Inputs Fast scenario model (directional)

Start year

End year

Base market size (revenue) in start year (USD, billions)

Example: 120 = $120B robotics market revenue in the start year (your scope).

CAGR (%)

Average Selling Price (ASP) USD

Penetration at start (%)

Penetration ceiling (%)

Adoption midpoint year

Adoption steepness (1–12)

Optional adoption shock (bps / year)

Adds a linear bias to penetration (e.g. +100 bps/year = +1%/year), capped by ceiling.

Note: This tool is intentionally simplified. It estimates a “revenue pool” based on your penetration assumption, and converts it to unit demand via ASP. Use it for sensitivity analysis, not precise forecasting.

Results

— —

Market revenue (end year)

—

Total market revenue, based on CAGR.

Robotics revenue pool (end year)

—

Market revenue × penetration.

Unit demand (end year)

—

Revenue pool ÷ ASP.

Cumulative units (start→end)

—

Sum of yearly unit demand (rough).

Projection charts Market, pool & units over time

“Revenue” shows total market and robotics revenue pool. “Units” uses ASP to translate pool into unit demand.

Year-by-year table Copy/paste friendly

Year	Market revenue ($B)	Penetration (%)	Revenue pool ($B)	Units (k)